Think Home Prices Are Going To Fall? Think Again

Friday, July 22, 2022   /   by Jeremy Tolley

Think Home Prices Are Going To Fall? Think Again

Think Home Prices Are Going To Fall? Think Again | MyKCM


Over the last two years, the rate of home prices appreciated at a dramatic pace. While that led to incredible equity gains for homeowners, it’s also caused some buyers to wonder if home prices will fall. It’s important to know the housing market isn’t a bubble about to burst, and home price growth is supported by strong market fundamentals.

To understand why price declines are unlikely, it’s important to explore what caused home prices to rise so much recently, and where experts say home prices are headed. Here’s what you need to know.

Home Prices Rose Significantly in Recent Years

The graph below uses the latest data from CoreLogic to illustrate the rise in home prices over the past year and a half. The gray bars represent the dramatic increase in the rate of home price appreciation in 2021. The blue bars show home prices are still rising in 2022, but not as quickly:

Think Home Prices Are Going To Fall? Think Again | MyKCM


You might be asking: why did home prices climb so much last year? It’s because there were more buyers than there were homes for sale. That imbalance put upward pressure on home prices because demand was extremely high, and supply was record low.

Where Experts Say Prices Will Go from Here

While housing inventory is increasing and buyer demand is softening today, there’s still a shortage of homes available for sale. That’s why the market is seeing ongoing price appreciation. Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First Americanexplains it like this:


“. . .we’re still well below normal levels of inventory and that’s why even with the pullback in demand, we still see house prices appreciating. While there is more inventory, it’s still not enough.”

As a result, experts are projecting a more moderate rate of home price appreciation this year, which means home prices will continue rising, but at a slower pace. That doesn’t mean prices are going to fall. As Selma Hepp, Deputy Chief Economist at CoreLogicsays:



“The current home price growth rate is unsustainable, and higher mortgage rates coupled with more inventory will lead to slower home price growth but unlikely declines in home prices.”

In other words, even with higher mortgage rates, moderating buyer demand, and more homes for sale, experts say home price appreciation will slow, but prices won't decline.

If you’re planning to buy a home, that means you shouldn’t wait for home prices to drop to make your purchase. Instead, buying today means you can get ahead of future price increases, and benefit from the rise in prices in the form of home equity.

Bottom Line

Home prices skyrocketed in recent years because there was more demand than supply. As the market shifts, experts aren’t forecasting a drop in prices, just a slowdown in the rate of price growth. To understand what’s happening with home prices in our area, let’s connect today.

Keller Williams Keystone
Jeremy Tolley
1620 South Queen St
York, PA 17403
Cell: 717-814-7519
Office: 717-755-5599

The data relating to real estate for sale on this website appears in part through the BRIGHT Internet Data Exchange program, a voluntary cooperative exchange of property listing data between licensed real estate brokerage firms in which Keller Williams Keystone participates, and is provided by BRIGHT through a licensing agreement. The information provided by this website is for the personal, non-commercial use of consumers and may not be used for any purpose other than to identify prospective properties consumers may be interested in purchasing. Some properties which appear for sale on this website may no longer be available because they are under contract, have Closed or are no longer being offered for sale. © 2022 BRIGHT, All Rights Reserved Information Deemed Reliable But Not Guaranteed. Data last updated: December 5, 2022 2 PM.
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